Although we are optimistic about Poland’s economic growth prospects, expecting an expansion of 1.5% in 2013 (recently revised downwards from 1.9%) and expect steady headline GDP expansion thereafter, we are more cautious regarding metal consumption and production prospects. Key metal consuming segments such as autos and particularly construction will underperform. Looking at the longer term, we expect growth in Poland as an autos export hub to remain steady, though construction activity will be underwhelming. Production of steel, copper and lead will grow, but at a slower rate than demand. Investment into production facilities will be restrained by several factors including …
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